Coronavirus Epidemic Update 13: Li Wenliang, nCoV vs Influenza, Dip in Daily Cases, Spread to Canada

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 13: Li Wenliang, nCoV vs Influenza, Dip in Daily Cases, Spread to Canada

February 9, 2020 78 By Sebastian Fry


welcome to another MedCram corona virus
updates number of deaths has gone from 565 up to 638 that’s an increase over
day of 73 and that’s exactly what it was yesterday so it looks as though we’ve
got a linear increase here in the last couple of days I am very sad to say that
one of those deaths was dr. Lee wen Liang who was credited as one of the
original doctors who recognized that there was a outbreak and then succumbed
to the very infection that he was warning about and for those of us that
are in the healthcare industry doctors nurses respiratory therapists
all sorts of people who every day go to work to fight disease a comrade of ours
has fallen and it gives us pause to remember that this is not a numbers game
they’re real people with families behind every one of these numbers in terms of
the infected that’s wet from 28,000 274 to 31,000 440 interestingly yesterday
that number represented an increase of 3700 today only an increase of 30 166
could this possibly be where things are starting to level out I’m eternally
optimistic but I’m not sure so interestingly if you go to this website
called world meters dot info backslash coronavirus backslash you come to this
dashboard that we referenced a couple of days ago and shows here the number of
corona virus cases of course and the number of deaths and the number that’s
recovered and what you’ll see here is the total cases and if you notice very
carefully you’ll start to see that it looks as though it’s starting to layer
off but it may be difficult to actually assess that from the way this graph is
laid out so if you keep scrolling down you’ll see this linker that says more
case statistics if you click on that you can see here the corona virus cases and
there’s little bit more detail here’s the part that’s interesting if you look
at daily cases worldwide on the graph here are the bar graph you’ll start to
see here that February 6 for the second day in a row there seems to be
somewhat of a decrease at least there’s a decrease here on February 5th it may
be that the data hasn’t all come in yet for February 6th it’s unclear but that
is certainly something that is noteworthy and something to watch and
then there’s the growth factor which is basically taking the derivative or the
slope of that increase and that’s what we have here for the growth factor you
can see early on there was quite variable and then it’s been generally
speaking just above 1 in terms of growth and here again for the second day in a
row it seems if all the data is in and is correct it would seem to suggests
that the daily cases growth factor is finally for the first time here going
below 1 for two days in a row potentially and hopefully that’s gonna
lead us in the right direction and then again here we have the total change in
number it seems as though we were in the 29 mid-20s here in terms of change in
total number we’ve dipped below 20 down to 15 and now we’re down to 11% we can
only hope that that is true we’re gonna have a better understanding of what’s
going on here in the next couple days over the weekend which by the way as we
did last week we will take a break and we’ll start up at the beginning of next
week I want to put these numbers into perspective however right now in the
United States we have a flu epidemic I’m sure that’s globally as well about
19 million people have gotten the flu this year a hundred and eighty thousand
of them have been hospitalized here in the United States and believe it or not
10,000 of them have died this flu season 68 of those 10,000 were children you in terms of those people that are
recover to make a note of that yesterday the
total number officially that recovered was 1178 that’s gone up by about three
hundred and sixty nine to one thousand five hundred and forty seven and we’re
gonna see this number increasing a couple of weeks ago we were in the few
hundred and now things have taken off the thirty thousand so we gonna start to
see definitive things here one way or the other I will say though dr. Lee had
a kind of unusual course if you look into his history he was hospitalized on
one twelve twenty twenty of course by that point they had suspected along the
way that he may have had this virus and he was tested numerous times
it wasn’t positive until February first 2020 he passed away on two six twenty or
should I say he passed away on actually on to seven because it was I believe
Friday morning already in China at the time that he passed away so why was it
that he came down with symptoms and yet for a good week two weeks no positive
coronavirus on testing I don’t know if there was a quality issue or whether or
not he just didn’t have very Mia not exactly sure why this was the case I
want to talk about what’s going on in Canada because we’ve had a couple more
cases in Vancouver first case in Vancouver was related to a gentleman in
his 40s who recently had traveled to the area in China who Han and then there was
a woman in her 50s in Vancouver this was the second case in her 50s who became
ill on February 1st 2020 after a husband and wife from one had
visited her and so there was a female and a male in their 30s that were
visiting and they’re all staying in the same house so when this lady became ill
and she was with someone that had come from Wuhan they tested her and she was
positive for the corona virus it looks as though they have now tested these
people as well after the home isolation and of course they are
both positive as well which is not surprising given the fact that the woman
in her 50s probably got it from those in their 30s what’s interesting is that
these people who are in their 30s generally young speaking here had very
mild symptoms maybe only a slight cold and then it went away what’s significant
though about this case is this represents the first person-to-person
transmission in Canada so far however it appears as though everybody is doing
well at least the cases in North America no one’s been hospitalized because they
needed to be it was more for a quarantine and isolation as it seems
that young and healthy people are better apt to deal with this virus those of us
who are a little rundown let’s take this opportunity to get extra sleep and to
prepare ourselves in case there is a epidemic care of coronavirus but more
importantly because there already is a flu virus issue thanks for joining us you